Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
